Finding the chase and cutting to it

I play cards: I like bridge, whist, solo whist and cribbage. I learnt to play most of these between the ages of 8 and 10 and I do feel lucky to have had that experience. It’s a great way to learn probability and the application in decision making.

There’s a huge difference between the chance of a card being played and the actual decision behind playing a card. Sir Ken Robinson would probably say it’s our creativity that makes the biggest difference but most people have rules they believe in which make the biggest difference to them.

In a seminar, a chart was recently presented asking the probability of the Conservative party winning the next general election in the UK. Like most people I said originally it was 75-90%. But I ignored the real problem: I am not referring to first past the post in our democratic decision making either.

The UK, like the US, is in a mess. A real mess, chaotically influenced by many factors. One is the fact we have a democracy which we often believe to be a fair market place. We believe that through the press and the internet everyone has access to the right information to make the right decisions.

I do think that is true but given the same information people can make some really bad decisions: I think Germany was in a similar position 60 years ago and made a terrible decision for what seemed like the right reasons.  That electorate  made their decision based on their experience and promises to make their country strong.  It wasn’t the people who said it would be very long and difficult road that won but the party that seemed to have passion and conviction.

I am frightened that will happen in the UK.  I’m frightened the luck some parties will need will be good people not thinking they should vote because they don’t want to support a party who perhaps should win because indirectly that would show support for the Conservatives (this has happened before in the UK, we’re a fickle bunch).  I don’t want the people to be bothered to vote to be the ones who vote for a party that looks like it’s being unfairly portrayed, hell attacked, in the press.

I wouldn’t feel at all lucky if that happened.