{"id":477,"date":"2009-11-08T13:51:34","date_gmt":"2009-11-08T12:51:34","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/samjwatkins.com\/blog\/?p=477"},"modified":"2009-11-08T13:51:34","modified_gmt":"2009-11-08T12:51:34","slug":"luck-knowledge-and-making-decisions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/samjwatkins.com\/blog\/?p=477","title":{"rendered":"Luck, knowledge and making decisions"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>I play cards: I like bridge, whist, solo whist and cribbage.  I learnt to play most of these between the ages of 8 and 10 and I do feel lucky to have had that experience.  It&#8217;s a great way to learn probability and the application in decision making.<a href=\"http:\/\/samjwatkins.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/11\/screenshot-blackjack-vegas-strip.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignright size-full wp-image-478\" title=\"screenshot-blackjack-vegas-strip\" src=\"http:\/\/samjwatkins.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/11\/screenshot-blackjack-vegas-strip.png\" alt=\"screenshot-blackjack-vegas-strip\" width=\"366\" height=\"318\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>There&#8217;s a huge difference between the chance of a card being played and the actual decision behind playing a card.  Sir Ken Robinson would probably say it&#8217;s our creativity that makes the biggest difference but most people have rules they believe in which make the biggest difference to them.<\/p>\n<p>In a seminar, a chart was recently presented asking the probability of the Conservative party winning the next general election in the UK.  Like most people I said originally it was 75-90%.  But I ignored the real problem: I am not referring to first past the post in our democratic decision making either.<\/p>\n<p>The UK, like the US, is in a mess.  A real mess, chaotically influenced by many factors.  One is the fact we have a democracy which we often believe to be a fair market place.  We believe that through the press and the internet everyone has access to the right information to make the right decisions.<\/p>\n<p>I do think that is true but given the same information people can make some really bad decisions: I think Germany was in a similar position 60 years ago and made a terrible decision for what seemed like the right reasons.\u00a0 That electorate\u00a0 made their decision based on their experience and promises to make their country strong.\u00a0 It wasn&#8217;t the people who said it would be very long and difficult road that won but the party that seemed to have passion and conviction.<\/p>\n<p>I am frightened that will happen in the UK.\u00a0 I&#8217;m frightened the luck some parties will need will be good people not thinking they should vote because they don&#8217;t want to support a party who perhaps should win because indirectly that would show support for the Conservatives (this has happened before in the UK, we&#8217;re a fickle bunch).\u00a0 I don&#8217;t want the people to be bothered to vote to be the ones who vote for a party that looks like it&#8217;s being unfairly portrayed, hell attacked, in the press.<\/p>\n<p>I wouldn&#8217;t feel at all lucky if that happened.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I play cards: I like bridge, whist, solo whist and cribbage. I learnt to play most of these between the ages of 8 and 10 and I do feel lucky to have had that experience. It&#8217;s a great way to learn probability and the application in decision making. There&#8217;s a huge difference between the chance [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-477","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-forty-two"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Luck, knowledge and making decisions - Finding the chase and cutting to it<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/samjwatkins.com\/blog\/?p=477\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Luck, knowledge and making decisions - Finding the chase and cutting to it\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"I play cards: I like bridge, whist, solo whist and cribbage. 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